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1978-2015年我国经济年均增长速度为9.73%,近40年的“黄金增长”期为我国规避“中等收入陷阱”赢得了时间和战略机遇。本文估测,我国将在2023年成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”进入高收入发展阶段。研究认为,在经济新常态下产业服务化程度低、价值链长期处于中低端位置,产业波及效果不显著、结构持续优化内在动力不足,战略性优势产业转换率低、传统产业转型升级缓慢,区域经济发展不平衡、产业空间布局不合理等是我国可能落入“中等收入陷阱”所面临的产业风险,并以此提出唯有加快产业向中高附加值产业价值链端演进,深化供给侧结构性改革培育产业转型发展新动力,产业政策精准定位并构建结构优化的现代产业体系,才能防范“中等收入陷阱”产业风险,成功跨入高收入国家行列。
From 1978 to 2015, China’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 9.73%. The nearly 40-year “golden growth” period has won time and strategic opportunities for China to evade the “middle income trap.” This article estimates that China will successfully cross the “middle income trap” in 2023 to enter the stage of high-income development. The research shows that under the new economic normal, the industrialization is low, the value chain is in the middle and low position for a long time, the impact of the industry is not obvious, the internal motivation of the continuous optimization of the structure is low, the conversion rate of strategic industries is low, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries is slow, The uneven development of regional economy and the irrational layout of industrial space are the industrial risks that China may fall into the “middle income trap.” Therefore, it is pointed out that only through accelerating the evolution of industries to the value chain of medium and high value-added industries and deepening supply Side structural reforms to foster new impetus for industrial restructuring and development, and to accurately locate industrial policies and build a modern industrial system with structural optimization so as to prevent the “middle-income trap” industry risks and successfully enter the ranks of high-income countries.