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为了解淮河流域年降水规律,利用淮河流域28个气象台站1958～2007年逐日降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、最大熵谱、小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、经验正交函数(EOF)分解、集对分析(SPA)等方法分析了淮河流域年降水事件特征及变化规律。检验结果表明,淮河流域面雨量及大部分台站降水量线性倾向率为正,沿海地区台站降水量线性倾向率为负;最大熵谱谱密度有两个峰值分别对应周期为2.5、7.1年;流域降水量经历过一次减少和一次增加的突变,但未达到显著性水平;南北反向变化的模态比较显著,降水分布具有很强的地域特色;淮河流域年降水量呈增加趋势,存在2～3年主周期震荡和7年左右的次周期,突变性不显著,降水量具有南部多于北部、山区多于平原、近海多于内陆的特点。
In order to understand the regularity of annual precipitation in Huaihe River Basin, linear precipitation, maximum entropy spectrum, wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) Set Pair Analysis (SPA) and other methods to analyze the characteristics and changes of the annual precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin. The test results show that the linear trend of precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin and most of the stations is positive, and the linear trend of precipitation in the coastal areas is negative. The peak of the maximum entropy spectral density corresponds to a period of 2.5 years and 7.1 years respectively ; Precipitation in the basin experienced a decrease once and an increase in the mutation, but did not reach the level of significance; the pattern of the north-south reverse change was quite significant, the distribution of precipitation had strong regional characteristics; the annual precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin tended to increase, and existed The main oscillation period of 2 ~ 3 years and the sub-period of 7 years showed no obvious mutation. The precipitation was more in the southern part than in the north part, more in the mountainous area than in the plain and offshore area was more than in the inland area.