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冷战后,“经济全球化促进民主化”成为一个相当流行的观念。当前国际政治经济学和比较政治学的主流理论也认为,国际贸易会促进民主转型。但现实世界告诉我们,国际贸易可能促进民主转型,也可能推动威权巩固。在马克思、摩尔和罗戈夫斯基的理论基础上,我们构建了一个分析框架来说明国际贸易在什么条件下会促进民主转型,在什么条件下导致威权巩固。由于国际贸易的结果将有利于世界范围内要素价格的均等化,国际贸易对不同要素所有者和密集使用者的收入和财富带来不同的影响。随着贸易的开放,充裕要素的所有者和密集使用者将会运用他们增加了的收入和财富来更有效地克服集体行动的困境,从而积聚了更多的政治与组织资源。由于是否转向民主取决于阶级之间的权力对比,国际贸易带来的上述变化将会直接影响威权政体的走向,即威权政体向民主政体转型还是威权政体的巩固。这样,在不同的要素禀赋下国际贸易会对政体类型的变迁产生不同的影响:当劳动要素充裕时,国际贸易往往会促进民主转型;当土地要素充裕时,国际贸易往往会促进威权巩固。
After the Cold War, “Economic Democratization for Economic Globalization” has become a rather popular concept. The current mainstream theory of international political economics and comparative politics also holds that international trade will promote democratic transition. However, the real world tells us that international trade may promote democratic transformation and may also promote the consolidation of authoritarian power. Based on the theories of Marx, Moore and Rogovsky, we have constructed an analytical framework to show under what conditions will international trade promote democratic transformation and under what conditions lead to the consolidation of authoritarian authority. As the result of international trade will help to equalize the price of elements in the world, international trade will have different impacts on the incomes and wealth of different factor owners and intensive users. As trade is liberalized, ample elements of independents and dense users will use their increased revenues and wealth to more effectively overcome the plight of collective action, thereby accumulating more political and organizational resources. Whether the shift to democracy depends on the comparison of power between classes, the above changes brought about by international trade will directly affect the trend of the authoritarian regime, that is, the transition from authoritarian regimes to democratic ones or the consolidation of an authoritarian regime. In this way, under different factor endowments, international trade will have different effects on changes in the type of regime: When labor factors are abundant, international trade tends to promote democratic transformation; and when the land factor is abundant, international trade tends to promote the consolidation of authoritarian power.