近日有媒体报道,美联储正酝酿货币政策转向,欲结束其自全球金融危机以来一直使用的量化宽松政策。由此,主流观点认为,美联储一旦退出量化宽松政策,将致使美元指数长期趋势由弱转强,不断走高,进而导致以美元计价的大宗商品价格不断下跌。一些研究报告根据这一逻辑推论,认为大宗商品价格将进入漫漫熊市。由于我国是一个制造业大国,企业界大多关注大宗商品的价格走势,所以我们就这些观点进行分析,以供大家参考。 Recently, some media reports said that the Fed is brewing a shift in monetary policy in an attempt to end its quantitative easing policy that has been used since the global financial crisis. As a result, the prevailing view holds that once the Fed withdraws its quantitative easing policy, the long-term trend of the U.S. dollar index will turn from weak to strong and continue to rise, thus causing the continuously declining prices of commodity-denominated commodities. Some research reports based on this logical inference that the commodity prices will enter a long bear market. Since China is a manufacturing power, most of the business community is concerned about the price movements of commodities. Therefore, we analyze these views for your reference.