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随着住房发展背景由“总量供不应求”向“结构性过剩与结构性短缺并存”转变,以及住房发展主线由“有房住”向“住好房”转型,未来十年中国楼市将面临以下突出问题:一是住房存量的结构性过剩如何消化及鬼城、空城问题。由于第三产业主要集中于一、二线城市,而第二产业则是三、四线城市的重要经济支柱,这种产业结构转型实际上指明了未来的城市的人口分布蓝图。未来三、四线城市人口总体将持续外流,而一、二线城市人口总体将继续保持流入态势。三、四线城市目前商品住房高库存及滞销问题已经较为严重,而其未来的人口又呈流出态势,住房供给结构性过剩问题必将会更加突出。
With the background of housing development from the “total supply in short supply ” to “structural surplus and structural shortage coexist ” change, and the main line of housing development from “housing ” to The next ten years China’s property market will face the following outstanding issues: First, how to digest the structural excess of housing stock and the ghost city, empty city issue. Since the tertiary industry is mainly concentrated in tier one and tier two cities, while the secondary industry is an important economic pillar of tier three and tier four cities, the industrial restructuring actually indicates the blueprint for the population distribution of cities in the future. In the future, the population in the third and fourth tier cities will continue to flow outwards in general while the population in the first and second tier cities will continue to maintain the inflow. In the third and fourth tier cities, the problem of high inventory and unsalable sales of commercial housing has become more serious now, and the population in the future has shown an outward trend. The structural surplus of housing supply will surely become more prominent.