论文部分内容阅读
编纂了台湾地区包括震源位置和震源参数的地震目录。选择的数据库用于建立与菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块俯冲和碰撞等各种构造运动有关的台湾地区三维地震形变模型。我们将整个台湾地区划分为10km间隔的三维网格,计算每个网格的地震矩释放量,即该网格内所有地震释放的地震矩总和。当一次地震的物理尺度超过网格尺寸10km时,相应的地震矩就分布在多个网格上。这种定量方法较好地描述了该地区地震矩释放的一级特征。值得注意的是,集集地震的发生,填充了震源区附近地震矩释放量在震前存在的明显不足。本文推测某个区域内地震矩分布的“不足—填充”模式可以应用于预测未来大地震的发生地点。根据这一观点,我们认为,集集地震可能会引起另外2次地震(北部的苗栗—新竹区和南部的嘉义区),这2次地震的破坏性及震级与集集地震类似,且靠近集集地震震源区。
The catalog of earthquakes in Taiwan, including hypocenter locations and source parameters, has been compiled. The selected database was used to establish a three-dimensional seismic deformation model for Taiwan associated with various tectonic movements such as subduction and collision of the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates. We divide the entire Taiwan area into three-dimensional grids of 10km intervals and calculate the amount of earthquakes released per grid, ie, the sum of the seismic moments released by all the earthquakes in the grid. When the physical scale of an earthquake exceeds the grid size of 10km, the corresponding seismic moment is distributed on multiple grids. This quantitative method better describes the first order characteristics of seismic moment release in this area. It is noteworthy that the occurrence of a set-quake earthquake fills the obvious shortcoming of the release of seismic moment near the source area before the earthquake. This paper speculates that the “underfill-fill” model of seismic moment distribution in a certain area can be applied to predict the location of future earthquakes. According to this view, we believe that the Miji-Chi earthquake may cause another two earthquakes (Miaoli-Hsinchu, northern part of the country and Chiayi District, southern part of the country). The destructiveness and magnitude of the two earthquakes are similar to those of the Chi-Chi episode, Set earthquake focal area.