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1998年,美国财政结束了多年以来的赤字预算,第一次出现了700亿美元的盈余。从中可以给我们一些有益的启示。第一,正确看待凯恩斯的财政理论。本世纪30年代大危机后,美国开始推行凯恩斯的财政政策,试图通过扩大政府支出创造有效需求,刺激私人投资,促进经济增长。按照凯恩斯的财政理论,经济社会只要处于非充分就业状态,政府推行赤字财政政策就可以起到促进经济恢复与经济增长的作用,至少短期内是如此,但是随着政府财政赤字不断扩大,必然造成公共债务规模持续膨胀,如果货币政策配合不好,高财政赤字极易引发高通货膨胀问题,而后者又会严重影响国民经济的正常运行,进而中断经济增长进程。实践充分证明,在就业不充分,市场需求不足,通货紧缩的社会经济环境里,采用凯恩斯理论是有效的。
In 1998, U.S. finances ended the deficit budget for many years and for the first time saw a surplus of 70 billion U.S. dollars. From which we can give some helpful inspiration. First, a correct view of Keynes’s financial theory. After the Great Crisis of the 1930s, the United States began to implement Keynes’s fiscal policy, trying to create effective demand by expanding government spending, stimulating private investment and boosting economic growth. According to Keynes’s financial theory, as long as the economy and society are in a state of undeserved employment, the government’s deficit fiscal policy can play a role in promoting economic recovery and economic growth, at least in the short run, but as the government’s fiscal deficit expands, it inevitably leads to The scale of public debts will continue to expand. If the coordination of monetary policies is not good, high fiscal deficits will easily lead to high inflation. In the latter case, the normal operation of the national economy will be seriously affected, further interrupting the process of economic growth. Practice has proved that it is effective to adopt Keynesian theory in the social and economic environment with inadequate employment, insufficient market demand and deflation.