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《检察风云》:在房地产有力地拉动地方政府GDP的现实之下,房产税和限购令将对于中国宏观经济造成怎样的影响?苏剑:纵观当前世界经济发展,各国都面临着产量过剩的问题,房地产成为拉动经济增长点,美国当年的次贷危机正源于此。此轮房产税和限购令的出台,必定会对中国房地产市场产生抑制作用,进而间接地传导到宏观经济层面,一定会有负面的影响。问题的关键在于目前的中国经济已经被房地产绑架。在中国的总需求中,房地产投资已经占到了12%左右,而每年房地产投资的增长率约为30%左右,那就是说,中国经济每年10%的经济增长率中,有3.6个百分点是来自房地产投资,房地产投资对中国经济增长的贡献率高达36%。换句话说,如果房地产投
“Prosecutor’s Case”: In the real estate industry under the real power of local government to promote GDP under the real estate tax and restriction order will have what impact on China’s macroeconomic? Su Jian: Looking at the current world economic development, all countries are faced with overproduction Problems, real estate has become the driving force for economic growth, the United States was the subprime mortgage crisis came from this. The introduction of this round of property tax and restriction order will surely have an inhibitory effect on China’s real estate market and thus indirectly lead to the macroeconomic level and will certainly have a negative impact. The crux of the problem is that the current Chinese economy has been kidnapped by real estate. In China’s total demand, real estate investment has accounted for about 12%, while the annual real estate investment growth rate of about 30%, that is to say, China’s economic growth rate of 10% per year, 3.6% of the total come from Real estate investment, real estate investment in China’s economic growth rate of up to 36%. In other words, if the real estate investment