在定义货运可靠性基础上,建立两种可靠性度量指标,以蚌埠—上海铁路集装箱运输链为研究对象,分析运输链可靠性,选取费用、时间和可靠性为效用函数特性变量构建多项Logit模型。通过对比可靠性价值和时间价值以及选择运输方式的影响因素弹性分析,得到当决策者选择货运方式时对货运可靠性更为敏感的结论。最后,根据实地调研提出改善铁路运输链服务属性的空间,并选取多项Logit模型测算属性改善后铁路运输链分担率的提升量。 Based on the definition of freight reliability, two reliability measures are established. Taking Bengbu-Shanghai railway container transportation chain as the research object, the reliability of the transportation chain is analyzed. Cost, time and reliability are selected as the variables of the utility function to construct multiple Logit model. By comparing the reliability value and time value and the elastic analysis of the influencing factors of choosing the mode of transportation, the conclusion that the decision maker is more sensitive to the reliability of the freight when choosing the mode of freight transportation is obtained. Finally, according to the fieldwork, we put forward the space to improve the service attributes of the railway transportation chain, and select a number of Logit models to measure the improvement of the share of the railway transportation chain after attribute improvement.