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针对燃煤火力发电项目技术要求高、投资金额大、周期长的特点而导致项目投资风险较大的现状,运用科学的方法分析项目风险因素,通过全面梳理燃煤火力发电项目的风险点,从市场风险、技术风险、工程风险、资金风险、政策风险和其他风险6个维度构建了指标体系,并运用模糊层次分析法构建了燃煤火力发电项目风险评价模型,以确定各个风险因素对项目的影响程度,为实际项目风险评估提供科学依据。最后运用神华集团1 000 MW项目进行实证分析,结果表明:构建的模型具有较强可实施性和操作性,对燃煤火力发电项目的风险评价有一定的指导意义。
In view of the fact that the coal-fired thermal power generation project has high technical requirements, large investment amount and long period, which leads to the risk of the project investment being relatively large, the scientific risk analysis method is used to analyze the risk factors of the coal-fired thermal power generation project. Market risk, technical risk, project risk, capital risk, policy risk and other risks. The paper establishes a risk assessment model of coal-fired thermal power generation project using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to determine the risk factors of each project The extent of impact, provide a scientific basis for the actual project risk assessment. Finally, using the 1 000 MW project of Shenhua Group for empirical analysis, the results show that the constructed model has strong implementability and operability, which is of guiding significance to the risk assessment of coal-fired thermal power generation projects.