论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨1991-2009年5岁以下儿童死亡率的趋势,并进行短期预测,为继续降低5岁以下儿童死亡率提供理论依据。方法根据全国城乡1991-2009年5岁以下儿童死亡率数据,拟合灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,进行回代预测、拟合精度评价和外推预测。结果建立的预测模型为:全国x(1)(t+1)=-924.6e-0.065t+985.6,城市x(1)(t+1)=-450.7e-0.046t+471.6,农村x(1)(t+1)=-1 071.7e-0.064t+1 142.8,拟合精度等级全国及农村达最好级别,城市为二级。结论 GM(1,1)模型拟合5岁以下儿童死亡率的数据结果理想,可用于5岁以下儿童死亡率的短期预测。
Objective To explore the trend of mortality rate among children under 5 years of age from 1991 to 2009 and make short-term prediction to provide theoretical basis for continuing to reduce the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age. Methods According to the data of the mortality rate of children under 5 years of age in urban and rural areas of China from 1991 to 2009, the GM (1,1) prediction model of gray system was fitted and the predictions of back-generation prediction, fitting accuracy and extrapolation were carried out. The results show that the forecasting model is as follows: the national x (1) (t + 1) = -924.6e-0.065t + 985.6, the urban x (1) (t + 1) = - 450.7e-0.046t + 471.6, 1) (t + 1) = - 1 071.7e-0.064t + 1 142.8, the best fitting level of accuracy in the country and rural areas, the city is two. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model fitted the data of mortality of children under 5 years with satisfactory results and can be used for the short-term prediction of mortality rate of children under 5 years of age.