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[目的]了解重庆市食管癌发病趋势及影响因素,为开展食管癌防治工作提供建议。[方法 ]收集整理2006~2014年重庆市肿瘤登记点报告食管癌新发病例,统计分析粗发病率、中标率、年度变化百分比(APC),趋势变化采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行判别。利用恶性肿瘤发病率差别分解法计算出人口因素和非人口因素对恶性肿瘤发病的贡献率。[结果]2006~2014年重庆市食管癌发病率呈上升的趋势,发病率由2006年的10.51/10万上升至2014年的17.79/10万,APC为7.68%(F=7.42,P<0.05)。中标率由2006年的9.16/10万上升至2014年的10.48/10万,APC为2.74%(P>0.05)。重庆市食管癌发病率上升受人口因素与非人口因素的协同作用,人口因素与非人口因素的贡献率分别为79.12%和20.88%。农村地区人口因素与非人口因素的贡献率分别为129.01%和-29.01%。[结论]重庆市食管癌发病率呈上升的趋势,受人口因素与非人口因素的协同作用,应加强非人口因素的干预工作,做好三级预防。
[Objective] To understand the trend and influencing factors of esophageal cancer in Chongqing and provide suggestions for prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. [Methods] The cases of newly diagnosed esophageal cancer were collected from 2006 to 2014 in Chongqing Cancer Registry, and the crude incidence rate, successful rate and annual percentage change (APC) were statistically analyzed. The trend of changes was estimated by the regression model of exponential distribution. Using the differential diagnosis of malignant tumor incidence to calculate the contribution rate of population factor and non-population factor to the incidence of malignant tumor. [Results] The incidence of esophageal cancer in Chongqing increased from 2006 to 2014, up from 10.51 / 100,000 in 2006 to 17.79 / 100,000 in 2014, with an APC of 7.68% (F = 7.42, P <0.05) ). The winning rate rose from 9.16 / 100,000 in 2006 to 10.48 / 100,000 in 2014, with an APC of 2.74% (P> 0.05). The rising incidence of esophageal cancer in Chongqing is affected by the synergistic effect of population factors and non-population factors. The contribution rates of population factors and non-population factors are 79.12% and 20.88% respectively. The contribution rates of population factor and non-population factor in rural areas are 129.01% and -29.01% respectively. [Conclusion] The incidence of esophageal cancer in Chongqing is on the rise. Due to the synergistic effect of population factor and non-population factor, the intervention of non-population factors should be strengthened and tertiary prevention should be done.