目前,我国正处在传统农业向现代农业转型的关键阶段,既需要加大投入,更需要优化制度安排。基于农业生产力和生产关系相匹配的角度,将粮食产量这一显性可考察指标作为农业发展情况的综合评价,与不同阶段农业领域政策沿革结合起来动态分析。研究认为农业发展进程中有效激励约束非常重要,特别是资源禀赋条件决定我国难以自发成长为现代农业的情况下,通过明确激励约束理顺动力机制尤为关键。但目前老的激励约束机制渐渐失效、市场化新机制尚未发挥实质性作用,农业发展激励约束机制出现断档。深层次原因是我国农业发展的激励约束主要由政府从外部施加,内生发展动力不足,这导致出现行为短期化和责任外部化等趋势性隐忧,发展缺乏自发性和持续性。在现代农业建设过程中政府必须有所作为,但更要有限作为、有效作为,关键是激发农业内生发展动力。国家需梳理整合现有政策激励,深化改革构建市场化新激励,助力现代农业早日实现。 At present, our country is in the crucial stage of the transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, which requires both greater investment and more optimization of institutional arrangements. Based on the matching of agricultural productivity and production relations, the explicit indicator of grain yield as a comprehensive evaluation of agricultural development is dynamically analyzed in conjunction with the policy evolution in agriculture in different stages. It is very important to study the effective incentive and restraint in the process of agricultural development. Especially when the resource endowment conditions make it difficult for our country to grow spontaneously into modern agriculture, it is especially crucial to clarify the incentive mechanism to rationalize the dynamic mechanism. However, the old incentive and restraint mechanism is gradually failing. The new market-oriented mechanism has not yet played a substantive role and the mechanism for encouraging and restraining agricultural development appears to be out of order. The deeper reason is that the incentive and constraint of agricultural development in our country is mainly imposed by the government from the outside and the endogenous motivation is not enough. This leads to the trend hidden problems such as the short-term behavior and the externalization of responsibility, and the lack of spontaneity and continuity of development. In the process of building modern agriculture, the government must do something, but more should be limited and effective. The key is to stimulate the impetus for agricultural endogenous development. The state needs to sort out and integrate the existing policy incentives, deepen the reform and create new incentives for marketization, so as to help modernize agriculture at an early date.