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走势判断:我们认为下半年大盘将会出现三季度平稳、四季度上升的情况。成交量将出现先下降后逐步回升,运行区间是2700-3100点。从过去一年的经济运行看,突出的矛盾就两点:地方政府的过度投资和信贷规模的急速扩大。因此,下半年的宏观经济仍可能表现出结构性问题,地方政府投资冲动带来的资金需求满足问题和结构性、局部性仍表现出价格上涨压力。外围市场的增长和
Trend judgments: We think the broader market in the second half will appear stable in the third quarter, rising in the fourth quarter. Volume will be the first decline and then gradually rise, the operating range is 2700-3100 points. Judging from the economic operation of the past year, there are two prominent contradictions: the over-investment by local governments and the rapid expansion of credit scale. Therefore, the macroeconomic in the second half of the year may still exhibit structural problems. The demand for capital brought by the impulse of investment by local governments will satisfy the problems and the structure, and the localities will still exert upward pressure on prices. Peripheral market growth and