经济结构变化、经济周期波动和政府干预增强,对过去几年实体经济杠杆率的提高有很大的贡献。期限错配、抵押品集中、部分项目清偿力不足、风险定价扭曲,是总量以外债务问题面临的重要结构性风险。未来如果出现一轮高通货膨胀,系统性债务危机爆发的可能性将大大增加。债务危机的前景取决于改革与通胀之间的赛跑。 Changes in economic structure, fluctuations in economic cycles and government intervention have greatly contributed to the improvement in the real economy leverage over the past few years. Mismatch of durations, concentration of collaterals, lack of liquidity in some projects, and distortions in pricing of risks are important structural risks to the debt problems beyond the aggregate. In the future, if there is a round of high inflation, the possibility of a systematic debt crisis will greatly increase. The prospect of a debt crisis depends on the race between reform and inflation.