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本文从开端出发提炼柴油消费宏观影响因素,从终端入手解析柴油消费微观结构因素,逐一分析其与柴油消费的内在关系;设定惯性发展高情景和能源革命低情景,利用消费强度法、多元回归法、终端消费法,分别从宏观和微观角度切入,建立结构性数学模型,回归并拟合出柴油消费趋势,判断其峰值。结果表明,在惯性消费高情景下,全国宏观经济结构调整相对缓慢,受汽车和石化工业发展规律影响,柴油消费峰值推至2020-2025年,但绝对量提高至1.74亿吨,且替代能源发展缓慢,2025年后柴油消费开始缓慢下降。在能源革命低情景下,经济社会发展顺利,产业结构有效调整,汽车燃油经济性提高,替代燃料快速发展,2015-2020年柴油消费峰值将达1.70亿吨,2020年后,汽车保有量增速明显放缓、各种替代能源加快发展,导致中国市场柴油消费下降速度有所加快。
This article starts from the beginning to extract the macroscopic influencing factors of diesel consumption, analyzes the micro-structural factors of diesel consumption from the terminal, and analyzes the intrinsic relationship with diesel consumption one by one. It sets the scenarios of high inertia development and low energy revolution, using the consumption intensity method, multiple regression Law and terminal consumption law, respectively, from a macro and micro perspective, the establishment of a structural mathematical model, regression and fitting out the trend of diesel consumption, to determine the peak value. The results show that under the scenario of high inertia consumption, the national macroeconomic structural adjustment is relatively slow. Affected by the development of automobile and petrochemical industry, the peak consumption of diesel oil is pushed to 2020-2025, but the absolute amount is increased to 174 million tons and the alternative energy development Slow, diesel consumption began to decline slowly after 2025. Under the scenario of low energy revolution, the economic and social development is smooth, the industrial structure is effectively adjusted, the fuel economy of automobiles is raised and the alternative fuels are developing rapidly. The peak diesel consumption will reach 170 million tons by 2015-2020. After 2020, the growth of car ownership Obviously slowed down, various types of alternative energy to accelerate the development, resulting in the Chinese market, the rate of decline in diesel consumption has accelerated.