解放以来鄱阳湖区棉花病虫发生为害大致分为下降、起伏、加重、偶发四种类型。预测今后十年内棉枯萎病、棉叶螨、红铃虫将是棉花病虫防治中的三大劲敌。现将主要依据分叙如下:棉枯萎病,①传播途径广、扩展快;②分布范围广,湖区除进贤县的其他产棉县都有发生;③该病寄主植物已知有二十多种,不利轮作防病;在无寄主的情况下,病菌可在土壤有机物内潜存5—10年;④侵染性强防治难。棉叶螨,①以往重发和中发偏重年占33.0—75.0%;②气候条件较适宜;③棉地分散,以致棉田管理,灌水抗旱以及棉花受螨害的补偿能力较差:④近年棉区耕作栽培制度渐趋复 Since the liberation of cotton pests and diseases in the Poyang Lake area can be divided into four types of decline, ups and downs, aggravating, accidental. Predict cotton blight within the next ten years, cotton spider mite, pink bollworm will be cotton three major rival pest control. Now the main basis for the sub-narrative are as follows: cotton blight, ① wide spread of access, rapid expansion; ② wide distribution, except for the county into other Xianxian cotton have occurred; ③ the disease host plants known to have more than 20 Species, unfavorable rotation crop disease prevention; in the absence of host case, the bacteria can be stored in soil organic matter 5-10 years; ④ strong infectivity prevention and control. Cotton spider mites, ① previous re-occurrence and middle-aged accounted for 33.0-75.0%; ② climatic conditions are more appropriate; ③ cotton is scattered, resulting in poor cotton field management, irrigation and cotton mites damage compensation ability: ④ cotton in recent years District farming system gradually restored