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三、83～85年社会需要量预测社会需要量M社需由4部分组成。即: M社需=M家庭+M集团+M更新+M出口 83～85年的家庭需要量以家计调查为主要依据求算。由于家计调查只反映被调查者目前的购买意向,不能确切体现今后几年各种动态因素变化的影响,因此我们将户数、收入、消费比例、通电率、农村小水电、气候等相关因素分别加以数量化,对家计调查结果进行修正而得出家庭需要量。集团需要量、更新量和出口需要量是通过调查和参考82年以前的历史数据而确定的。 (一)家庭需要量(M家庭)及相关因素分析首先将各省、市、自治区家计调查样本的
III. Social Needs Forecast for 83-85 Years Social Needs The M social agency needs to be composed of four parts. That is: M social needs = M family + M group + M update + M exports 83 ~ 85 years of family needs based on household surveys as the main calculation. Since the household survey only reflects the current purchase intention of the respondents, it cannot accurately reflect the impact of various dynamic factors in the next few years. Therefore, we will take into account the number of households, income, consumption ratio, electricity rate, rural small hydropower, climate and other related factors. They were quantified separately and the family survey results were corrected to arrive at household needs. Group demand, update volume, and export requirement are determined by surveying and referencing historical data from 82 years ago. (i) Analysis of family needs (M family) and related factors First, sample household surveys of provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions