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近些年来,能否及时有效地处理各种公共危机事件,能否在变化莫测的国内、国际局势中快速作出正确的判断和决策,成为我国公共危机决策者需要面对的重大考验。混沌理论与公共危机决策表现出较好的内在契合,即对初始条件的敏感依赖性、混沌中的分形及混沌的时空观,这为公共危机决策者更好地掌握时机、把握危机和寻找转机提供了强有力的理论支持。混沌理论在公共危机决策中的应用具有重要的现实意义,它在危机决策预测模式、危机决策组织及危机决策领导观念三个方面为走出公共危机决策困境拓宽了解决思路。
In recent years, whether we can deal with various public crises in a timely and effective manner and whether we can make correct judgments and decisions quickly and unpredictably in domestic and international situations have become the major tests our country’s policy makers in public crises need to face. Chaos theory and public crisis decision-making show a good internal fit, that is, the initial dependence of the sensitive dependence of chaos in fractal and chaotic space-time view, which for public crisis makers to better grasp the opportunity to grasp the crisis and find a turning point Provide a strong theoretical support. The application of chaos theory in the public crisis decision-making has important practical significance. It broadens the solution ideas in the crisis decision-making predicament, the crisis decision-making organization and the crisis leadership decision concept.