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这篇论文主要是对那些参与有组织犯罪的个人犯罪轨迹进行调查。我们用半参数模型组的办法,选取854个人,按有类似发展轨迹分成若干组进行研究。这个研究最重要的发现就是:在这些参与有组织犯罪者当中,从成年开始犯罪者数量相当大,占40%,以前没有任何犯罪记录者占19%,较早开始犯占11%,持久犯占30%。直到今天还没有犯罪轨迹研究发现成年开始犯占有这么大的比例。而且,如果对犯罪行为的不同类型和犯罪集团里的不同角色进行轨迹分析,可以证明这个研究结果是相当可信的。
This paper mainly investigates the trajectories of individuals involved in organized crime. We use the method of semiparametric model group, select 854 individuals, according to a similar development track is divided into several groups to study. The most important finding of this research is that among those involved in organized crime, the number of offenders from adulthood is quite large, accounting for 40% of all crimes, 19% having no previous criminal record, 11% having started earlier, Accounting for 30%. Until today there have been no criminal traces of adult adulthood found to occupy such a large proportion. Moreover, the trajectory analysis of the different types of crimes and the different roles of criminal groups can prove that the results of this study are quite credible.