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决定论和非决定论是近现代科学哲学争论的核心问题,也是近现代历史哲学争论的核心问题。在当代西方哲学中,基于科学主义立场,全面批判、诘难历史决定论的,首推波普尔。他把批判理性主义原则贯彻到社会历史领域,系统地提出了非决定论历史观。他认为,没有历史规律,只有历史事实和历史解释;历史理论先于历史事实,历史理论只能证伪,不能证实;知识的增长强烈影响着人类历史的发展,知识的增长不可预测,人类历史的未来进程也无法预言,社会的进化不具有必然性;对社会建构的改造,必须拒绝历史决定论,特别要拒绝马克思主义的方法,抛弃整体主义的乌托邦蓝图,代之以他的渐进的社会学技术方法,实行逐步的社会工程。
Determinism and nondeterminism are the core issues in the debate of philosophy of modern science. They are also the core issues in the debate over the philosophy of modern history. In contemporary Western philosophy, based on the standpoint of scientism, comprehensive criticism and dismay of historical determinism, the most important popper. He implemented the principle of critical rationalism in the field of social history and systematically put forward the view of history of nondeterminism. He believes that there is no historical law, only historical facts and historical explanations. Historical theories precede historical facts. Historical theories can only be falsified and can not be substantiated. The growth of knowledge strongly influences the development of human history. The growth of knowledge is unpredictable. Human history The future process of socialism can not be predicted. The evolution of society is not necessarily inevitable. For the reconstruction of social construction, we must reject historical determinism. In particular, we must reject Marxism and abandon the holistic utopia blueprint instead of his progressive sociology Technical methods, the implementation of progressive social engineering.