本文基于以925 hPa NCEP/NCAR再分析风应力距平为初始强迫场的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式对1997/1998 El Nio事件集合预报平均结果,对1997/1998 El Nio事件进行热力学诊断分析。结果表明:(1)在整个El Nio事件过程中,在赤道太平洋从西到东的各个Ni~o区中,平流作用主要起促进作用,而热力阻尼项则基本为衰减或抑止作用。(2)从Nio 4区到Nio 1+2区,纬向平流对SSTA上升的促进强度变化不大,而经向平流和垂直上升流对SSTA增加的促进作用在逐渐增强。同时,热力阻尼项对SSTA变化的抑制作用也呈依次增强。(3)平流项中,经向平流的贡献相对显著。 Based on the Zebiak-Cane ocean-atmosphere coupling model with 925 hPa NCEP / NCAR reanalysis wind stress anomaly as the initial forced field, the average results of the 1997/1998 El Nio event ensemble prediction were predicted. The 1997/1998 El Nio event Thermodynamic diagnostic analysis. The results show that: (1) during the whole El Nio event, advection plays a major role in each Ni ~ o region from west to east in the equatorial Pacific while the thermal damping term is basically attenuated or inhibited . (2) In the area from Nio 4 to Nio 1 + 2, the advancing intensity of zonal advection has little effect on the increase of SSTA, but the accelerating effect of meridional and vertical updraft on the increase of SSTA gradually increases. At the same time, the damping effect of thermal damping on SSTA also increased. (3) In the advection, the contribution of meridional advection is relatively significant.