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由于岗布尔(Gunbel)第三极值分布模型的独特优点(例如其震级上限ω等),地震专家把该模型应用到地震危险性研究。然而由于其复杂的非线性分布,以及地震数据的局限,极大地限制了在地震研究中的应用。为此,论述了以下两个方面的研究:挖掘拓宽和有效利用观测数据;确定初始参数以确保非线性拟合模型的收敛。该方法还能应用于弱震区地震发生规律的研究,为了阐述该方法的独特优点,对不同地震构造背景下的两组——中国东南的弱震区及希腊西部强震区地震数据进行了分析。研究证明对以上两个地震区的结果稳定且拟合误差小。
Due to the unique advantages of Gunbel’s third extreme distribution model (such as its magnitude upper limit ω, etc.), earthquake experts apply this model to seismic hazard studies. However, due to its complicated non-linear distribution and the limitations of seismic data, it greatly limits the application in seismic research. Therefore, the following two aspects are discussed: mining widening and effective use of observation data; and determining initial parameters to ensure the convergence of the nonlinear fitting model. The method can also be applied to the study of earthquake occurrence in weak earthquakes. In order to illustrate the unique advantages of this method, seismic data of two sets of weak earthquakes in southeastern China and strong earthquakes in western Greece are analyzed under different seismic tectonic settings. The study proves that the results of the above two seismic areas are stable and the fitting error is small.