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根据开都河流域1958-2007年气象与水文资料,利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验技术对春季和夏季洪峰流量变化趋势进行分析,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验和Mann-Kendall方法对其突变点进行检验,最后应用灰色关联对天山南坡开都河春夏季洪峰流量的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:1958-2007年期间,开都河春季洪峰流量呈减小的态势,夏季洪峰流量呈增加的态势;春季和夏季洪峰流量发生突变的年份分别为1972、1996年;积雪日起6天积温绝对变化、洪峰日起前6天积温变化是春季洪峰流量的主要影响因素,即积雪日前期温度变化与春季升温程度决定了春季洪峰的强度;而洪峰日起前5天降水量、洪峰前期降水量是夏季洪峰流量的主要影响因素,说明洪峰发生前的土壤含水量与降水量多少决定了夏季洪峰流量的大小。
Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1958-2007 in the Kaidu basin, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test technique was used to analyze the spring and summer peak flow trends. Based on this, the sliding t-test and Mann-Kendall Finally, the influencing factors of the flood peak and spring flood peak of the Kaidu River in the southern slope of Tianshan Mountain are analyzed by gray relation. The results show that during the period of 1958-2007, the spring peak discharge of the Kaidu River is decreasing, and the peak flow of summer peak shows an increasing trend. The peak of spring and summer flood peak is 1972 and 1996, respectively. The daily accumulated temperature changes absolutely. The change of accumulated temperature during the first 6 days of flood peak day is the main influencing factor of spring flood peak flow, that is, the temperature change in spring and the temperature rise in spring determine the intensity of spring flood peak. In the first 5 days of flood peak, Pre-peak precipitation is the main influencing factor of summer peak flow, indicating that before the peak rainfall and soil moisture content determines the size of summer peak flow.