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98年国内IT业所遭遇的种种意外,使人们进一步领略了“未来”怪异的脾气。因此谁敢说他对1999年形势一目了解,那定是瞎话。前几天,刚与一位擅长占卜的朋友长聊,身上难免沾点“巫气”,打算对1999年斗胆预测一番。 与97年相比,98年仍有增长。若改变勾兑配方,数据仍会好看。但与过去相比,衰退迹象昭然。通常,衰退表现为三种形状:V形,U形和L形。V形的估计可能太乐观,而L形又太悲观,选择不悲不乐的U型较为稳妥。这就意味着衰退要延续一段时间,99年还得呆在U形的底部。
All the accidents that the IT industry in China suffered in 1998 made people further appreciate the weird temper of “the future.” Therefore, whoever dares to say that he has a clear idea of the situation in 1999 is definitely a lie. A few days ago, just chatting with a friend who is good at divination, who inevitably dip “witchcraft”, intend to make some bold predictions about 1999. Compared with 1997, there is still growth in 1998. If you change the blending formula, the data will still look good. But signs of recession are clear compared with the past. In general, the recession manifests itself in three shapes: V-shape, U-shape and L-shape. V-shaped estimates may be too optimistic, and L-shaped and too pessimistic, choose not sad U-shaped more secure. This means that the recession will last for some time and will have to stay at the bottom of the U-shape for 99 years.