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全球货币政策正处在一个史无前例的宽松化过程中,已经上涨超过200%的黄金难以覆盖全球货币宽松可能引发的通胀后遗症。从中短期来看,美元币值的走向将成为金价走势的主要决定变量,预计2012年金价最终将落入1400~1600美元/盎司的区间,突破2000美元/盎司或者跌落1000美元/盎司的可能性都不大。长期来看,全球货币体系的变化将成为影响金价的重要因素。
Global monetary policy is in an unprecedented easing process. Gold, which has risen by more than 200%, is difficult to cover the possible after-effects of global monetary easing. In the short to medium term, the direction of the value of the U.S. dollar will become the major determinant variable for the price of gold. It is estimated that the gold price will eventually fall in the range of $ 1,400 to $ 1,600 per ounce in 2012, with the possibility of exceeding $ 2,000 an ounce or dropping $ 1,000 an ounce Not big. In the long run, changes in the global monetary system will become an important factor affecting the gold price.