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针对强震能否预测以及如何预测的科学难题,建立了孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法.结合作者前期研究成果——中缅边境地震区未来强震四要素预测结果,并与2011年3月云南盈江M_s5.8级地震、缅甸M_s7.2级地震比较,认为这两次地震都能被作者提出的理论方法提前预测,表明该理论方法能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.此外,本文还对中缅边境地震区未来的地震趋势进行了分析.
Aiming at the scientific problems of how to predict strong earthquakes and how to forecast them, a brittle fracture theory and related prediction methods for multi-locked earthquakes are established. Combined with the results of the author’s previous research, Compared with the M_s5.8 earthquake in Yingjiang, Yunnan Province in March 2011 and the M_s7.2 earthquake in Myanmar, it is considered that both earthquakes can be predicted in advance by the theoretical method proposed by the author, indicating that the theoretical method can be reliably applied to medium-intensity Earthquakes and the prediction of the main shock.In addition, this paper also analyzes the future earthquake tendency of the Sino-Myanmar border seismic area.