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根据大鹏湾夜光藻Noctilucascintillans赤潮发生要素的结构关系，利用生物种群生态学和营养动力学的原理，提出夜光藻－硅藻－营养物质三者相关的动力学模型，模型中的参数将体现海况环境的有关因素。文中利用微分方程动力系统理论对模型作出定性分析，给出赤潮发生与否的某些判别条件；并根据1991年3月1日一4月30日大鹏湾所发生的夜光藻赤潮数据分别对1次赤潮全过程和有连续3次赤潮的情形进行了有效的数值模拟，所得结果对赤潮的预测预报研究有一定的参考价值。
According to the structural relationship between the occurrence elements of Noctilucascintillans and the nutrient dynamics of Noctilucascintillans in Dapeng Bay, the kinetic model of Noctilucascintillans nocturnal nutrient is put forward. The parameters in the model will reflect the sea conditions Environmental factors. In this paper, the differential equations of the dynamic system theory to make a qualitative analysis of the model, given the occurrence of red tide certain conditions or not; and according to March 1, 1991 1 April 30 Dapeng Bay Occurrence of red tide algae data were 1 full red tide and 3 consecutive red tides were validated. The results obtained have certain reference value for the research of forecast and forecast of red tide.