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经济发展导致人口的城镇化聚集,城镇化进一步提高经济效率,两者密不可分。本文针对河南省1980-2014年城镇人口比率与GDP数据进行实证研究,发现城镇化进程以1995年为节点呈现两阶段特征,且各阶段速度先快后慢。根据变量特征借助虚拟变量建立双曲线模型较好地解释了两者的变化关系。通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现两者互为因果关系,根据实证结果提出相关发展建议。
Economic development leads to the urbanization of the population and urbanization further enhance economic efficiency, which are inseparable. In this paper, an empirical study of urban population ratio and GDP data from 1980 to 2014 in Henan Province shows that the process of urbanization presented a two-stage characteristic with nodes in 1995, and the speed of each stage was faster and slower. According to the characteristics of variables, the hyperbola model is established by means of dummy variables to explain the changing relationship between the two. By Granger causality test found that the two causal relationship between each other, based on empirical results put forward relevant development proposals.