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本文通过对我国证券分析师的年报分析文章的研究,利用分析师得出的定性的褒贬结论,考察了分析师是否具有独到见解,以及分析师的这些结论是否具有预示性。研究结果表明,我国分析师已具备了一定的分析能力,但没有很强的证据表明他们有自己的“独到”见解。分析师在得出褒贬结论时关注的信息不同、使用的方法不同,而且在下贬义结论时,分析师倾向于使用确凿的信息和灵活的分析方法,但未发现分析师对不同行业、失败和非失败的公司进行分析时在关注的信息、使用的方法上存在显著差异。分析师下结论还比较依赖审计师的意见,对被分析公司的当前会计业绩也非常倚重。尽管如此,研究表明,这些定性结论已具有一定的预示性。
Based on the analysis of China Securities analysts’ annual report analysis, this paper analyzes the analysts’ qualitative judgments and conclusions, examines whether analysts have unique insights and whether the analysts’ conclusions are predictable. The results show that our analysts already have some analytical skills, but there is no strong evidence that they have their own “unique” insights. Analysts are not aware of the different types of information they use when they come to the verdict, and they tend to use conclusive information and flexible analytics when derogating their conclusions. However, analysts have not found that different industries, failures and non- Failure of the company in the analysis of the information concerned, there are significant differences in the methods used. Analysts also rely more on the conclusions of the auditor’s opinion, the company’s current accounting performance is also heavily relied. Nevertheless, studies show that these qualitative conclusions have some predictability.