论文部分内容阅读
边坡土体因其自身的不均匀性及试验监测的不准确性,饱和渗透系数表现出一定的变异性。为探索强降雨条件下基岩型层状边坡的稳定性及失稳破坏概率,以笔者前期对基岩型层状边坡降雨入渗及其稳定性模型的研究为基础,结合Monte Carlo法,建立了考虑饱和渗透系数变异性的基岩型层状边坡稳定性可靠度计算模型,并基于MATLAB将这一计算过程程序化。最后,利用建立的基岩型层状边坡可靠度计算模型,得到了张家湾滑坡在不同饱和渗透系数变异系数及降雨强度下的失稳破坏概率,分析了饱和渗透系数变异系数及降雨强度对滑坡失稳破坏概率及安全系数均值的影响。计算结果表明在一定降雨条件下,当失稳破坏概率小于50%时,变异系数越大、滑坡发生失稳破坏的概率越大;当失稳破坏概率大于50%时,变异系数越小、滑坡发生失稳破坏的概率越大。
Because of its own inhomogeneity and the inaccuracy of experimental monitoring, the slope saturated soil permeability coefficient shows some variability. In order to explore the stability and failure probability of bedrock-type layered slope under heavy rainfall conditions, based on the author’s previous research on rainfall infiltration and stability model of bedrock-shaped layered slope, combined with Monte Carlo method , A model to calculate the stability of bedrock stratified slope considering the variability of saturated permeability coefficient is established and the calculation process is programmed based on MATLAB. Finally, using the established model of bedrock slope reliability, the failure probability of Zhangjiawan landslide under different saturation coefficient of variation and rainfall intensity is obtained. The variation coefficient of saturated permeability coefficient and rainfall intensity Influence of Landslide Failure Probability and Mean of Safety Factor. The results show that under a certain rainfall condition, when the failure probability is less than 50%, the larger the coefficient of variation is, the greater the probability of landslide failure is. When the failure probability is more than 50%, the coefficient of variation is smaller and the landslide The greater the probability of destabilization damage.