大地震和特大暴雨是危及人类生命和财产安全的特大自然灾害。由于灾害的突发性及其后果的严重性,历来为各国政府和科技界所关注。研究和实践表明,大地震和特大暴雨等自然灾害是异常态小概率事件,往往是一个开放的复杂系统。其多因子、多系统的复杂的非线性相互作用,使人类在认识它的发生机制、准确预测时遇到巨大困难。因而临震预报、特大暴雨和台风突变等预报至今仍是世界性难题。 近二三十年来,国内外科学家明显加强了通过多学科交叉从多角度对特大自然灾害发生机制及预测理论、方法的探索,已有所发现,有所进步。我国有一批活跃在不同专业领域的科学家,长期以来热心通过多学科交叉积极探索大地震、特大暴雨等自然灾害的预测,取得可喜进展。他们应邀出席主题为“特大自然灾害预测的新途径、新方法”香山科学会议第133 Earthquakes and torrential rain are major natural disasters that endanger human life and property. Due to the sudden nature of the disaster and the seriousness of its consequences, it has always been the concern of all governments and scientific and technological circles. Research and practice show that natural disasters such as large earthquakes and heavy rainfall are abnormal small probability events, often an open and complex system. Its multi-factorial, multi-system complex nonlinear interactions make it difficult for human beings to recognize its mechanism of occurrence and accurate prediction. As a result, the prediction of imminent earthquake, torrential rain and typhoon sudden change are still worldwide problems. In the past 20 to 30 years, scientists both at home and abroad have obviously stepped up their exploration of the mechanism and prediction theory and method of catastrophic natural disasters from a multi-disciplinary perspective through interdisciplinary studies. Some discoveries and improvements have been made. In our country, a group of scientists active in different fields of specialization has long been enthusiastic about actively exploring the prediction of natural disasters such as major earthquakes and torrential rain through interdisciplinary studies and has made gratifying progress. They were invited to attend the symposium entitled “New Approaches and New Approaches to Predict Natural Disaster,” Xiangshan Science Conference, Section 133