目的 :运用数理统计的方法对长效药物释放过程进行预测 ,从理论上探索灰色理论在药物长效释放领域中的应用 ,进而提出灰色理论在预测中的适用性与科学性。方法 :制备甲氨蝶呤毫微囊作为实验体系 ,根据灰色预测数学模型 ,借助计算机运算 ,预测甲氨蝶呤毫微囊的释药过程 ,对预测结果进行定量与定性分析 ,计算预测误差 ,评估预测精度。结果 :预测结果与实测值偏差不大 ,在误差允许范围内 ,预测精度较高。结论 :灰色理论可用于预测长效药物释放体系的药物释放过程。 OBJECTIVE: To predict the release process of long-acting drugs by mathematical statistics and to explore the application of gray theory in the field of long-term drug release in theory, and to put forward the applicability and scientificity of gray theory in prediction. Methods: Methotrexate nanocapsules were prepared as experimental system. According to the gray prediction mathematical model, the drug release process of methotrexate nanocapsules was predicted by computer. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the prediction results was carried out. The prediction error, Evaluate prediction accuracy. Results: The deviation between the predicted result and the measured value is small, and the prediction accuracy is high within the allowable range of error. Conclusion: Gray theory can be used to predict drug release from long-acting drug delivery systems.