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运用扩散理论研究新产品的市场成长规律是市场营销领域重要的研究方法,现有多数研究没有考虑产品扩散进程中存在的不同类别产品间的竞争互补效应和不同世代产品间的竞争替代效应.在Kim模型基础上,提出产品的潜在采用者数量既受到互补类产品已采用者人数的影响,又受到同类别不同世代产品相对价格的影响,建立了竞争多代产品扩散模型.以中国通信产品为例进行实证检验,发现在历史扩散数据较少的情形下,模型的拟合度较高,参数估算结果更加真实地反映了通信产品市场扩散的现状,预测精度高于其它模型,说明所建立的竞争环境下多世代扩散模型是有效的.
The use of diffusion theory to study the law of market growth of new products is an important research method in the field of marketing. Most existing studies do not consider the complementary effects of different types of products in the process of product proliferation and the competitive substitution effect between different generations of products. Based on the Kim model, the number of potential adopters proposed by the product is affected not only by the number of adopters of complementary products, but also by the relative prices of products of different generations of the same category, establishing a multi-generational product proliferation model for competition. Examples of empirical tests show that in the case of less historical diffusion data, the model has a higher degree of fit, and the parameter estimation results more realistically reflect the current status of the diffusion of the communication product market. The prediction accuracy is higher than other models, indicating that the established The multi-generation diffusion model is effective in a competitive environment.