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针对特长隧道施工风险评价中常存在诸多不确定性因素的问题,本文提出一种基于未确知测度理论的特长隧道施工风险性评价新方法。根据特长隧道事故的特点及成因,选取支护措施等15项未确知测度函数评价指标,建立了特长隧道施工风险分级预测的未确知测度评价模型;利用信息熵计算各评价指标的权重,依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,得出特长隧道工程施工风险评价分级预测的评价结果;并应用于某一特长铁路隧道工程实际,成功评定出该隧道综合风险等级为II级。结果表明,该方法不仅能给出特长隧道施工期间的风险等级,并且能够更客观地反映特长隧道施工过程中危险源的情况,为隧道工程施工风险性评价提供了一种新途径。
Aiming at the problem of many uncertainties in the risk assessment of long tunnel construction, this paper presents a new method of risk assessment of long tunnel construction based on the unascertained measure theory. According to the characteristics and causes of long tunnel accident, 15 unascertained measure functions such as support measures are selected to evaluate the unascertained measure index, and the unascertained measure evaluation model for risk classification of long tunnel construction risk is established. The information entropy is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation index, According to the confidence level identification criteria, the grade judgment is made, and the evaluation result of the grade prediction of the construction risk assessment of the extra-long tunnel is obtained. The assessment result is applied to the actuality of a particular long-distance railway tunnel project and the comprehensive risk rating of the tunnel is successfully assessed as Level II. The results show that this method can not only give the risk level of the long tunnel during construction, but also reflect the danger sources in the construction of the long tunnel more objectively, which provides a new way for the risk assessment of tunnel construction.