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国内外关于经济波动与经济增长之间关系的理论研究存在较大分歧,不同的计量研究方法针对两者关系的经验研究也没有得出一致结论,国内的经验研究则更少。笔者基于ARMA-GARCH-M模型,使用我国1953—2011年的人均GDP增长率数据,研究了我国经济波动与经济增长之间的相关关系。分析结果表明:在我国,经济波动与经济增长之间具有负向关系。因此,应结合我国自身的特殊情形,准确定位政府的角色,改善政府的宏观调控水平,防止经济大起大落,以促进经济平稳增长。
Domestic and foreign theoretical studies on the relationship between economic fluctuations and economic growth are quite different. Different empirical approaches for measuring the relationship between the two methods have not come to a conclusion, and there are fewer empirical researches in China. Based on the ARMA-GARCH-M model, the author studies the correlation between economic fluctuation and economic growth in our country by using the data of the growth rate of per capita GDP from 1953 to 2011 in our country. The results show that: In our country, there is a negative relationship between economic fluctuations and economic growth. Therefore, we should accurately locate the role of the government, improve the level of macroeconomic regulation and control of the government, and prevent economic ups and downs in the light of China’s own special circumstances in order to promote steady economic growth.