近日,在北京召开的一次农资会议上,国家计委价格司一位处长预计,明年化肥价格仍有下降空间。这位官员分析说,明年化肥的价格形势是下降压力有,回升难度大。原因主要有三个方面: 其一,农产品的价格形势不乐观。虽然今年以来粮食价格止跌回稳,但与去年总体相比仍然有下降。今年夏粮已经减产,秋粮减产也成定局,对明年粮食价格上涨是个利好因素,但由于国内粮食库存大,减产还不足以支持粮食价格真正上涨。事实上,今年粮食品种中只有玉米是涨价的,水稻的收购价每千克还降了2～4分钱。而且由于最近国家有关部门又出台了支持经济作物种植面积增长的政策,对粮食价格的影响也会是负面的。明年粮棉价格也无上涨空间。棉花价格在今年新棉上市 Recently, at a meeting of agricultural materials held in Beijing, a department chief of the price division of the State Planning Commission predicted that there will be room for further decline in fertilizer prices next year. The official analyzed that the price situation of fertilizers next year is downward pressure and it is difficult to recover. There are three main reasons: First, the price situation of agricultural products is not optimistic. Although grain prices have stabilized since the beginning of this year, they still have a decline compared to the previous year. This year’s summer grain production has already been cut, and autumn grain production is also a foregone conclusion. It is a good factor to increase food prices next year. However, due to the large domestic food stocks, the reduction in production is not enough to support the real increase in food prices. In fact, only corn has risen in price this year, and the purchase price of rice has dropped by 2 to 4 cents per kilogram. Moreover, as the relevant national departments have recently introduced policies to support the growth of cash crops, the impact on food prices will also be negative. There will be no room for further price increases for grain and cotton next year. Cotton prices listed on the new cotton this year