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针对某型弹载单机在自然贮存和加速试验过程中出现的无失效情况,采用配分布曲线—最小二乘法进行了可靠性评估方法研究。首先介绍了单机加速因子计算和自然贮存数据处理方法,之后针对上述方法得到的数据,采用3种方法进行失效概率估计、4种方法进行Weibull分布参数估计,最后根据参数估计的结果进行可靠性评估和对比,确定了最优方法。实例分析表明:自然贮存信息的引入可有效提高可靠度评定值。本文介绍的3×4种方法中,失效概率为经典估计时加权最小二乘法取权值(3)较合理;失效概率为Bayes估计时计算结果变化稳定且趋势合理;Bayes估计目标贮存期的可靠度评定结果优于经典估计。
Aiming at the non-failure of a single type of single-plane bombing in natural storage and acceleration test, the method of reliability assessment was studied by the distribution curve-least squares method. Firstly, the calculation methods of single acceleration factor and natural data storage are introduced. After that, three kinds of methods are used to estimate the probability of failure, four methods are used to estimate the Weibull distribution parameters, and finally the reliability evaluation based on the result of parameter estimation In contrast, the best method was determined. The case study shows that the introduction of natural storage information can effectively improve the reliability rating. Among the 3 × 4 methods described in this paper, the probability of failure is the weighted least square method (3), which is more reasonable when the failure probability is estimated by Bayes estimation. The calculation results of Bayes estimation are stable and the trend is reasonable. Bayes estimate the target storage period is reliable The result of degree evaluation is better than the classical one.