本文应用灰色系统理论对小麦赤霉病的长期预测方法进行了研究。作者根据黑龙江省八五四农场小麦病穗率的历史统计数据列(1973-1982年),经灾变映射建立GM(1,1)模型,并给出了小麦赤霉病长期预测的时间函数模型: p(t)=147.15133e~(0.08294(t-1))-1.06792e~(-0.37533(t-1))-135.08341经检验,模型的精度高,回测1973-1982年的结果,拟合率达100%;对1983-1986年的预測结果,全部与实况吻合。本文又计算出1987-1991年的预测值,这将为小麦赤霉病的研究与防治,提供有益的信息。 In this paper, the long-term prediction method of wheat scab is studied by using gray system theory. According to the historical statistics data of the incidence of panicle disease of wheat in 1985 in Heilongjiang Province (1973-1982), the GM (1,1) model was established by catastrophe mapping and the long-term forecasting model of wheat The results show that the accuracy of the model is good and the results of backtesting from 1973 to 1982 are as follows: () The rate of 100%; the forecast results of 1983-1986, all consistent with the actual situation. This paper also calculated the predicted value of 1987-1991, which will provide useful information for the research and prevention and control of wheat scab.