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20世纪90年代以来,中国居民消费率持续下降,国内消费需求过低已经成为制约经济结构优化和经济可持续发展的主要瓶颈。现有研究往往将消费需求过低的原因归结为消费能力不足。将递归效用函数引入Lucas原始模型,并以此拓展模型为依据,使用转型期中国城镇七等分收入组居民消费数据测算不同收入群体消费增长的差异化福利效应。结果表明:第一,无论收入水平高低,消费增速加快对消费者经济福利的提升效果显著;第二,消费增速加快的福利效应存在明显的群体差异性。同质性偏好假定下,收入等级越高,消费增速加快的福利效应越小;考虑消费群体偏好异质性后,促进消费增长对富人经济福利的提升效果更明显。由此得到的启示是,政府在制定经济政策时,不仅要健全社会福利制度,以推动中低收入群体消费需求的增长,也要关注高收入群体消费的增长。
Since the 1990s, the consumption rate of Chinese residents has been on the decline. The low domestic consumption demand has become the main bottleneck restricting the optimization of economic structure and sustainable economic development. Existing research tends to attribute the reason of too low consumer demand to lack of spending power. The recursive utility function was introduced into the Lucas original model and based on the extended model, the differential welfare effect of consumption growth of different income groups was calculated using the household consumption data of the seven-decile income group in China’s urban transition. The results show that: First, regardless of the level of income, the acceleration of consumption growth has a significant effect on improving the economic welfare of consumers; secondly, there are obvious group differences in the welfare effects of accelerating consumption growth. Under the hypothesis of homogeneity preferences, the higher the income level, the smaller the welfare effect of accelerating the growth of consumption. After considering the preference heterogeneity of consumer groups, promoting the growth of consumption is more effective for enhancing the economic welfare of the rich. The enlightenment from this is that when formulating economic policies, the government should not only improve the social welfare system so as to promote the growth of consumption demand of the middle and low income groups, but also pay attention to the growth of the consumption of high - income groups.