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我国整体经济增长向好趋势不会改变,为股市中长期走势奠定坚实的宏观基础;下半年沪深资金需求在2100～2200亿元左右,资金供给为2200～2400亿元,供给略大于需求,资金面比较宽松;从历年股市运行规律和运行趋势看,下半年大盘将呈现冲高回落格局,为明年行情做铺垫;1450点下方为下半年较为安全的持仓区域,1700点上方为持仓风险较大区域。
China’s overall economic growth will not change the trend for the long-term trend of the stock market to lay a solid macro foundation; the second half of the Shanghai and Shenzhen capital needs in about 2100 ~ 220 billion yuan, funding for 2200 ~ 240 billion yuan, the supply slightly larger than demand, Capital surface is more relaxed; from the calendar year the stock market operating rules and trends, the second half of the broader market will show a pattern of high and decline for the next year to pave the way for the market; below 1450 for the second half of the more secure positions in the region above 1700 for the position risk Large area.