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根据统计计算大连地区１９９１年１１月至 １９９９年１月发生的２９９个ＭL≥２．０地震，得出目前该地区的地震活动规律，并对这期间的地震变化趋势进行了理论分析和概率背景估计，认为其间所发生的地震属于１９９３年３月１８日的大连满家滩南海ＭＬ４．３地震序列，从理论值和实测值的结果判断，该地震序列发生 ＭＬ≥５．０的可能性不大， 但不能排除该地震序列仍然存在着发生４．０≤ＭＬ＜５．０地震的概率背景．目前的地震平静期属于该地震序列活动期的尾声和下一地震活动期能量积累的初级阶段．
Based on the statistics of 299 ML≥2.0 earthquakes occurred in Dalian area from November 1991 to January 1999, we can get the current seismic activity law in this area and make a theoretical analysis and a probabilistic background of the seismic change trend during this period It is estimated that the earthquakes that occurred during this period belonged to the ML4.3 earthquake sequence in the South China Sea, Manjia beach, Dalian, on March 18, 1993. Judging from the theoretical and measured results, the probability of occurrence of ML≥5.0 However, it can not be ruled out that there is still a probability background for the occurrence of 4.0 ≤ ML <5.0 earthquakes in the earthquake sequence. The current seismic transect belongs to the beginning of the active phase of the earthquake sequence and the initial stage of energy accumulation in the next seismic phase.