悲观元归纳是科学实在论面临的最为顽固的敌人。近几十年来,很多科学实在论者都主要致力于反驳悲观元归纳,从而为科学实在论辩护。刘易斯和兰格分别于2001年、2002年指出悲观元归纳犯了佯正面错误和翻转错误。本文详细考察了这两个论证,并对它们进行了一定程度的辩护,指出悲观元归纳可以有两种理解,这两种理解要么犯了翻转错误,要么犯了佯正面错误。 Pessimistic meta-induction is the most stubborn enemy facing scientific realism. In recent decades, many scientific realists have focused their efforts on refuting pessimistic meta-inductions and defended scientific realism. In 2001 and 2002 respectively, Lewis and Lange pointed out that the pessimistic element summed up the mistakes made and the mistakes made. This paper examines these two arguments in detail and defenses them to some extent, pointing out that there are two understandings of pessimistic induction, both of which make a flip error or a false positive.