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本文揭示了社会保障基金投资国债对政府债务扩大效应的产生机理、决定因素以及与国民储蓄和社会保障改革效果的关系。研究发现,当政府实施统一预算管理体系和严格限量监管制度时,社会保障基金的增长将刺激国债规模同步上升,抵消前者调节代际利益和加强财政可持续性的功能。本文以美国为例,使用1950~2010年的数据进行经验研究发现,社保基金对美国国债规模的影响在上世纪80年代以后逐渐增强,国债规模增长几乎使联邦社会保障基金完全丧失了其应当发挥的功能。就中国而言,由于当前储蓄率较高,短期内扩大效应尚不值得担忧,但长期来看,该问题同样值得关注。
This article reveals the mechanism, determinants and the relationship between the effect of social security investment on government debt expansion and the effects of national savings and social security reform. The study finds that when the government implements a unified budget management system and a strict regulatory regime, the growth of social security funds will stimulate the simultaneous rise of the national debt scale and offset the former’s function of regulating intergenerational interests and enhancing financial sustainability. Taking the United States as an example, empirical studies using data from 1950 to 2010 find that the impact of social security funds on the size of the U.S. government bonds gradually increased after the 1980s. The growth of government bonds almost completely deactivated the federal social security fund from its due role Function In the case of China, due to the current high savings rate, it is not worth the worry to expand the economy in the short term. However, in the long run, this issue is equally worthy of attention.