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展望未来,库存周期、房地产周期行将结束,出口周期、产能周期、政治周期等新周期正在开启。总体来看,今年市场上流行的观点对经济、房市、股市、债市普遍悲观。方正证券经济学家任泽平有不同的见解:在一片悲观之中,我们有没有忽视一些积极因素?有没有因为恐慌导致跌破内在价值的资产?拿着显微镜容易会将短期利好或利空因素放大,拿着望远镜才可能做出更全面客观的判断。在近日发布的《2017年中期回顾与展望》,“泽平宏观”认为未来相当长的一段时间经济L型,过度悲观或过度乐观可能都是错的。
Looking ahead, the inventory cycle, the real estate cycle is about to end, the export cycle, production cycle, political cycle and other new cycle is open. Overall, this year’s market popular opinion on the economy, housing market, stock market, bond market generally pessimistic. Ren Zeping, a securities economist at Founder Securities, has a different view: In a pessimism, have we neglected some positive factors? Are there any assets that have fallen below intrinsic value because of panic? With microscopes, it is easy to magnify short-term positive or negative factors, With the telescope it is possible to make a more comprehensive and objective judgment. In the recently released “Mid-2017 Review and Outlook”, “Zeping macro” believes that economic L-shape, over-pessimism or over-optimism may be wrong for a long time in the future.