首先分析战斗机反舰攻击和防空系统对抗过程的特点,然后给出了随机因素效能仿真模型与确定性模型相结合的对抗双方作战行动模拟方法,提出战斗机编队的生存概率和对舰队的指定毁伤效果等两项基本任务效能指标及算法,并通过战斗机队攻击集体防御舰艇编队的任务效能算例验证了该方法的可行性。对舰攻击效能评估方法既可以用于战斗机设计分析,也可以用于战术研究。 Firstly, the characteristics of fighter anti-ship attack and air-defense system confrontation process are analyzed. Then, a simulation method of confrontational operations combat tactics combining with simulation model of random factor effectiveness and deterministic model is proposed. The survival probability of fighter aircraft formation and the designated damage effect to fleet are given And other two basic tasks of performance indicators and algorithms, and through the combat fleet attack collective defense fleet mission performance example to verify the feasibility of the method. The method of assessing the effectiveness of a ship’s attack can be used both in combat aircraft design analysis and tactical research.