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本文采用简单相关、偏相关、逐步回归和积分回归等统计学分析方法,对新乡地区三十年(1954～1983)冬小麦单产与当地水、温、光等气象要素的关系进行了研究。结果表明,该区冬小麦全生育期内的水、温、光三要素总值基本能满足冬小麦生长发育的需要,且各气象要素在绝大多数时段内与冬小麦生长发育的供求关系比较适宜。影响该区冬小麦产量波动的主要气象因素是五月份温度,十二月、二月和五月份降水,它们的丰产出现概率均较低,但是,它们对冬小麦产量影响大小在丰,欠年存在着一定差异。根据上述研究结果,对该区冬小麦栽培管理措施提出了建议。
In this paper, the relationship between the winter wheat yield and the local meteorological elements such as water, temperature and light was studied in three decades (1954 ~ 1983) of Xinxiang using statistical methods such as simple correlation, partial correlation, stepwise regression and integral regression. The results showed that the total value of water, temperature and light during the whole growth period of winter wheat could basically meet the needs of winter wheat growth and development, and the relationship between the supply and demand of winter wheat growth and development was suitable for most meteorological elements. The main meteorological factors affecting the winter wheat yield fluctuation in this area are the temperature in May, the precipitation in December, February and May, and the low probability of their high yield. However, their impact on the winter wheat yield is abundance and the year of existence Some difference. According to the above research results, the suggestion for winter wheat cultivation and management in this area is put forward.