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本文基于1980~2011年间的跨国数据,对发达国家贸易条件与贸易收支之间经验性的S曲线假说在发展中国家是否适用进行了检验。然后,通过建立动态面板模型和采用系统GMM估计方法,实证分析发展中国家贸易条件对贸易收支的影响。结果表明:在统计关联性上,部分发展中国家也存在S曲线效应;在实证经验上,贸易条件恶化会导致贸易收支盈余在短暂的下降之后再上升。本文的实证结论与S曲线假说是吻合的,并且在一定程度上可以解释长期以来中国贸易条件不断恶化与贸易收支顺差持续扩大并存的现象。
Based on the cross-country data from 1980 to 2011, this paper tests whether the empirical S-curve hypothesis between the terms of trade and trade balance of developed countries applies in developing countries. Then, through the establishment of dynamic panel model and the use of systematic GMM estimation methods, empirical analysis of the impact of developing country trade conditions on trade balance. The results show that there are also S-curve effects in some developing countries in terms of statistical relevance. In empirical experience, worsening terms of trade lead to a rise in trade surplus after a brief drop. The empirical conclusion of this paper is consistent with the S-curve hypothesis, and to some extent can explain the long-term deterioration of China’s trade conditions and trade surplus continued to expand and coexist.