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对2020年、2030年中国能源供需格局进行了情景分析,研究了绿色发展情景与常规发展情景下的能源供需总量、结构、布局、流向和流量等要素。研究发现:2030年之前中国能源需求将保持增长,能源供应面临较大压力;一次能源结构趋于清洁化和低碳化,但煤炭仍将是第一大能源;第三产业和居民生活逐渐取代工业成为终端用能的增长主力,但工业仍是能源消费的第一大行业;“三华”仍是全国能源消费重心,能源流将持续扩大,保持自西向东、由北往南、陆海进口的基本流向。
This paper analyzes the scenario of China’s energy supply and demand in 2020 and 2030, and studies the factors such as total energy supply and demand, structure, layout, flow direction and flow under the green development scenario and the conventional development scenario. The study found that: by 2030, China’s energy demand will maintain its growth and the energy supply will be under great pressure. The primary energy structure tends to be clean and low-carbon, but coal will remain the number-one energy source. The tertiary industry and residential life will gradually replace the industry Becoming the main force of growth of energy use by end-users. However, industry is still the largest industry of energy consumption. “Sanhua” is still the center of national energy consumption. The energy flow will continue to expand from west to east and from north to south and land The basic flow of sea imports.