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“高增长低通胀”是2005年宏观经济运行的最基本特征。国民经济继续保持9%的高增长态势,同时,通货膨胀率(CPI增长)由上年接近4%降至2%以下,不仅如此,经济增长的稳定性和协调性均有所提高。但一些新问题出现和一些老问题的累积发展,会对2006年和整个“十一五”平稳快速增长目标的实现产生相当的压力,这些问题包括:经济增长对投资和出口的依赖度依然偏高;部分行业的产能过剩问题凸现,不良后果开始显现;物价增幅进入偏低区间,通货紧缩压力加大;就业增长偏慢,农民增收难度大;外需与内需增长的不平衡问题突出。综合来看,2005年宏观经济面临的最主要的问题是产能过剩与消费需求后劲不足的共同作用,可能再次出现通货紧缩问题。2006年可能是此轮宏观调控政策效果集中显现的一年,经济增长速度适度回落是其基本特征,预计GDP增长8.5%左右,投资增长和出口增长将双双放慢,居民消费价格指数增幅继续回落。2006年及“十一五”初期宏观经济政策取向是:继续坚持“双稳健”的总体政策取向,重点是防止通货紧缩,财政、货币和产业政策三大政策工具主要围绕着3个方面的政策取向进行灵活微调,即对日益显现的供给过剩问题,要继续采取偏紧的宏观经济政策,继续适度压缩投资需求增长,防止产能过剩的发展,同时加快产业结构调整,优化产业产品结构。对可能面临的内需不足、通货紧缩问题,要通过积极地促进消费需求增长,使内需增长保持快速稳定。为减少对外需增长的过强依赖,要逐步调整外贸外资政策。
“High Growth, Low Inflation” is the most basic feature of the macroeconomic operation in 2005. The national economy continued its high growth rate of 9%. Meanwhile, the inflation rate (CPI growth) dropped below 2% from the previous year's rate of 4%. Not only that, the stability and coordination of economic growth have increased. However, the emergence of some new problems and the cumulative development of some old problems will put considerable pressure on the realization of the goal of steady and rapid growth in 2006 and the entire “Eleventh Five-year Plan”. These problems include: the dependence of economic growth on investment and exports is still partial High; some industries overcapacity highlights the adverse consequences began to appear; price increases into the low range, increased deflation pressure; employment growth is slow, farmer income is more difficult; the imbalance of external demand and domestic demand increase outstanding. Taken together, the major problem facing the macroeconomy in 2005 is the common effect of overcapacity and lack of stamina in consumer demand, and the problem of deflation may occur again. The year 2006 may be the year when the effect of this round of macro-control policies is concentrated. The moderation of economic growth is its basic feature. GDP growth is expected to be around 8.5%, both investment growth and export growth will slow down, and the growth of consumer price index will continue to drop . The macroeconomic policy orientation in 2006 and the early 11th five-year plan period is to continue adhering to the overall policy orientation of “bistability” and focus on preventing deflation. The three policy instruments of finance, monetary and industrial policies mainly focus on three aspects of policies In other words, we should continue to adopt tight macroeconomic policies to continue to moderate the growth of investment demand and prevent the development of overcapacity while accelerating the readjustment of industrial structure and optimizing the industrial product mix. With regard to the possible lack of domestic demand and deflation, we should maintain rapid and steady growth in domestic demand by actively promoting the growth of consumer demand. In order to reduce the excessive dependence on the growth of external demand, it is necessary to gradually adjust the foreign trade and foreign investment policies.